Use of Data in Proving Fraud

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The Securities and Exchange Commission’s case against Robert Magee and Valor Capital was a straight forward cherry picking case. What caught my eye was the data and statistical analysis that the SEC used to prove its charges.

Magee was doing the wrong thing by order block trades in an omnibus trading account and then allocating the trades to his personal account and client accounts at the end of the day. That procedure is ripe for compliance failure without a preset decision on who gets the trades. The concern will always be that the securities that increased during the day will be allocated to favored accounts and those that went down would be allocated to others.

The SEC ran the numbers to prove its point.

From July 2012 to January 2015, Magee’s personal accounts posted first-day profits of 0.876%. Those were 459 trades of which 376 were profitable on the first day.

Meanwhile, the client accounts posted a -2.309% return on the first day during roughly the same period. Those were 1,365 trades of which only 219 were profitable on the first day.

Of course, the disparate results could be based on good luck. The SEC ran some stats and found that the probability that disproportionate allocation of favorable trades was due to chance was less than one in 100,000 during one period and less than one in a trillion during another period.

Valor’s brokerage firm terminated its relationship because it suspected the cherry-picking. The subsequent brokerage firm did the same. The third brokerage firm did not permit the use of an omnibus account to execute trades. The Texas state securities regulator reprimanded and fined Magee in August 2016 for no pre-allocating block trades.

According to the SEC’s press release, this is the fourth action arising out of an enforcement initiative to combat cherry-picking led by the SEC’s Los Angeles Regional Office and supported by the agency’s Division of Economic and Risk Analysis.  The previous actions were against Jeremy Licht of JL Capital Management, Gary Howart of Howarth Financial, and Joseph B. Bronson of Strong Investment Management.

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Author: Doug Cornelius

You can find out more about Doug on the About Doug page

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