“Free” and the Black Swan

I’ve talked in the past about the Black Swan by Taleb and at other times about Free by Chris Anderson. I think I missed a connection between the two.

Taleb points out that the Black Swan event is only a surprise to one side. The turkey thinks life is great living on the farm. Until Thanksgiving comes around. Thanksgiving may be a surprise to the turkey, but it’s not a surprise to the farmer.

In looking at the Free model, is there a Black Swan connection? I think this cartoon puts it nicely.

The “Free” Model from Geek and Poke